Authors: Elina Mäkelä, Fabian Stephany
Abstract: The question of whether AI substitutes or complements human work is central
to debates on the future of work. This paper examines the impact of AI on skill
demand and compensation in the U.S. economy, analysing 12 million online job
vacancies from 2018 to 2023. It investigates internal effects (within-job
substitution and complementation) and external effects (across occupations,
industries, and regions). Our findings reveal a significant increase in demand
for AI-complementary skills, such as digital literacy, teamwork, and
resilience, alongside rising wage premiums for these skills in AI roles like
Data Scientist. Conversely, substitute skills, including customer service and
text review, have declined in both demand and value within AI-related
positions. Examining external effects, we find a notable rise in demand for
complementary skills in non-AI roles linked to the growth of AI-related jobs in
specific industries or regions. At the same time, there is a moderate decline
in non-AI roles requiring substitute skills. Overall, AI’s complementary effect
is up to 50% larger than its substitution effect, resulting in net positive
demand for skills. These results, replicated for the UK and Australia,
highlight AI’s transformative impact on workforce skill requirements. They
suggest reskilling efforts should prioritise not only technical AI skills but
also complementary skills like ethics and digital literacy.
Source: http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.19754v1
